Text I A world in transformation: World Energy Outlook 2017 The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing ele

Text I

A world in transformation: World Energy Outlook 2017

The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017. A cleaner and more diversified energy mix in China is another major driver of this transformation.

   Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 — but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements. The boom years for coal are over — in the absence of large-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) — and rising oil demand slows down but is not reversed before 2040 even as electric-car sales rise steeply.

   WEO-2017, the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s flagship publication, finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces: the United States is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets.

   Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030.

   “Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places, including China and India,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for international market dynamics.”

   These themes — as well as the future role of oil and gas in the energy mix, how clean-energy technologies are deploying, and the need for more investment in CCUS — were among the key topics discussed by the world’s energy leaders at the IEA’s 2017 Ministerial Meeting in Paris last week.

   This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on China, where economic and energy policy changes underway will have a profound impact on the country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global trends. A new phase in the country’s development results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy industry and coal.

   At the same time, a strong emphasis on cleaner energy technologies, in large part to address poor air quality, is catapulting China to a position as a world leader in wind, solar, nuclear and electric vehicles and the source of more than a quarter of projected growth in natural gas consumption. As demand growth in China slows, other countries continue to push overall global demand higher – with India accounting for almost one-third of global growth to 2040.

   The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective way. By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.

   This is having a major impact on oil and gas markets, challenging incumbent suppliers and provoking a major reorientation of global trade flows, with consumers in Asia accounting for more than 70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. LNG from the United States is also accelerating a major structural shift towards a more flexible and globalized gas market.

   WEO-2017 finds it is too early to write the obituary of oil. Global oil demand continues to grow to 2040, although at a steadily decreasing pace – while fuel efficiency and rising electrification bring a peak in oil used for passenger cars, even with a doubling of the car fleet to two billion. But other sectors – namely petrochemicals, trucks, aviation, and shipping – drive up oil demand to 105 million barrels a day by 2040.     While carbon emissions have flattened in recent years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower pace than in last year’s projections. Still, this is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.

Available at: <https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/ november/a-world-in-transformation-world-energyoutlook-2017.html>.  Retrieved on: 14 Nov. 2017. Adapted.

Text II

Brazil joins IEA as an Association country, reshaping international energy governance

 BRASILIA – The International Energy Agency and Brazil jointly announced today that the country joined the IEA as an Association country, opening new avenues for cooperation towards a more secure and sustainable energy future with Latin America’s largest country.

   “With today’s announcement of IEA Association, we are taking another important step to place Brazil at the centre of global debate on key energy policy issues including renewable energy, energy efficiency, rational use of fossil fuels, energy security and sustainable development,” said Fernando Coelho Filho, Minister of Mines and Energy

   Brazil’s leading expertise in bioenergy, hydro and other forms of clean and conventional energy is recognized around the world, and provides an excellent basis to develop solutions for global energy challenges. The country’s experience in managing renewable resources in its energy mix can contribute greatly to IEA discussions on a broadened concept of energy security. Brazil has also pioneered the use of auctions for long-term contracts for renewable energy, a model that is now successfully applied as best-practice world-wide.

   Brazil and the IEA plan to work jointly across a wide range of energy-related activities. These include implemention of The Biofuture Platform, which aims to promote international coordination on advanced low carbon fuels. The IEA will also support the development of Brazil’s ten-year energy efficiency plan and co-host an energy efficiency training event in Brazil to share regional and global experiences.   

   “Brazil’s experience shows that policies do matter,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Its determined and ambitious long-term energy policies, developing deep-water oil resources and expanding biofuels output, set an example to countries around the world. As a result, our latest data shows that Brazil will become a net oil exporter this year, the first major consumer in recent history to ever achieve such a turnaround.”

   Dr Birol also congratulated Brazil for its recent successful deepwater bid round. After depending on oil imports since IEA records began in the 1970s, the IEA now finds that Brazil will become a net exporter this year, and exporting nearly one million barrels of oil per day to world markets by 2022. This is the result of a 50% increase in oil production in the past decade thanks to a successful push into deep-water production, and a biofuels programme that has helped keep domestic oil-demand growth under control.

   With Brazil, the IEA family now accounts for over 70% of the world’s total energy consumption, compared with less than 40% just two years ago. The seven IEA Association countries are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore and Thailand.

   The agreement will allow the IEA to benefit from Brazil’s unique experience, which has enabled it to develop one of the cleanest energy mixes in the world. Thanks to its expertise in global energy market and policy analysis, the IEA can support Brazil’s efforts and collaborate in its energy transition. 

Available at: <https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/ october/brazil-joins-iea-as-an-association-country-reshaping-international-energy-govern.html>. Retrieved on: 31 Oct.  2017. Adapted.

Comparing Texts I and II, one concludes that