Questão FC225084
Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 - Market Trends and Projections to 2018 The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium- Term Oil M
Interpretação de Textos (Understanding)
CESGRANRIO · 2014
Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 - Market Trends and Projections to 2018
The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium- Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.
This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a ‘game changer’. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.
While North America is expected to lead mediumterm supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.
These and other changes are carefully lai out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.,
It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.
Available at: <http://www.iea.org/publications/ freepublications/publication/name-104933-en.html>. Retrieved on: 20 June, 2014. Adapted.
Comparing the excerpt from Text I “Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth this year and forecast to add 1.3 mb/d in 2H14 compared to the same period a year ago” (lines 13-15) to the excerpt from Text II “Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards” (lines 24-27), one states that Text number
- 1’s forecast is based on non-OECD countries’ oil demand in the 1Q13.
- 1’s forecast is based on non-OECD countries’ oil demand in the 2Q12.
- 2’s forecast is based on OECD countries’ oil demand in the 2H12.
- 2’s forecast is based on OECD countries’ oil demand in the 1H12.
- 1 and number 2 make similar forecasts for non-OECD countries’ oil demand.
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Ambos os trechos projetam o mesmo fenómeno central: o papel crescente dos países não‑OECD na procura global de petróleo. Texto I fala em liderança no crescimento e adiciona explicitamente +1,3 mb/d em 2H14; Texto II indica que a procura não‑OECD tende a ultrapassar a da OCDE e a aumentar essa vantagem.
Embora usem enquadramentos temporais distintos, ambos descrevem uma mesma tendência estrutural — aumento da demanda nos países não‑OECD que os torna o motor do mercado petrolífero. Não há contradição: são previsões convergentes sobre quem liderará o crescimento.
Portanto, afirmar que os dois textos fazem previsões semelhantes sobre a demanda dos países não‑OECD é correto.
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